(11/07/2019 21:47)gilesbus1 Wrote:  I am as well as it makes perfect operational sense, it makes me wonder if FirstGroup didn't buy Rusholme off Lease at some stage and now need a use for it, hence this situation, why they bought it is beyond me, perhaps of course it was going cheap, when they are a North Manchester Operator with very little in South Manchester in fact the tail end of two Vantage routes is all they have, the extra fuel costs and wage costs alone will up costs as will training costs of all the new staff they will need to take on when the Vantage staff who generally live in Bolton and Leigh leave as its too far away as a working base, plus Rusholme is in an ideal site for redevelopment, where Atherton is on an industrial estate so can't be redeveloped. If it passes back to the leasing company they will never get it again as units on there tend to be 100% occupied unusually, the unit is or was owned by S&W Garages the one time haulage maintenance company, that repainted some buses for First Manchester about 25 years ago in Tomato Soup Livery, although that premises was previously to SLT used as a car maintenance yard by the S&W Group. The proprietor of S & W was the second partner besides Martin Bott in South Lancs Travel/Green Triangle Buses.

Another thing that puzzles me is based on the fact that its a TfGM contract why they didn't enclose a depot as part of the busway scheme close to the busway, say in somewhere like Tyldesley close to the track that the operator had to utilise on winning the franchise, and that was only for the use of Vantage Buses.

(11/07/2019 22:16)gilesbus1 Wrote:  Would Souter Investments be able to though when he holds Stagecoach shares? Would that simply not be blocked and/or investigated by the MMC? Office of Fair Trading? and either him being forced to release his Stagecoach shares or place himself in a none executive position on Stagecoach's board with shares being locked, until an age when he is no longer part of either company operationally. E.g. a Souter Size pension fund. I've also heard that Souter wants the routes but not the business to avoid any MMC investigation, that situation would be very unlikely, especially as Venture Capitalists would likely become involved, and so far of the five bids for Arriva none have been made by any Brian Souter company, although he still has time to mount a bid for the moment! unless of course he is more interested now in what is a FirstGroup based on the fact that is more likely to be broken now and he can hedge his bets on Arriva being bought by one of the Venture Capitalists and broken up later on. Of course nothing is to say that Stagecoach might break off companies in the future should it get into financial difficulty at a latter stage, or doesn't like what some Andy Burnham type character is doing i elsewhere, or Andy Burnham him himself is doing in Manchester, e.g. after a final legal push in Manchester and the toys are thrown out of the basket if it loses money elsewhere in one of its fleets, e.g. another East Lancashire.

I am lead to believe National Express is not really interested in much beyond the West Midlands, otherwise why has it not yet raised its hand in the 25 years or so its held West Midlands except in Dundee? Perhaps National Express is a vehicle to continue and inject capital into what was Travel West Midlands and also the MBO at Tayside. I've also wondered over the years why National Express didn't join up as a merger with GoAhead, as nothing duplicates between them, despite GoAhead getting its toes burn't in Birmingham previously, National Express is a different picture to Birmingham Coach Company and Peoples Express.

(11/07/2019 23:34)Winston Wrote:  Stagecoach was the first to be tied to a potential Arriva deal when it first went up for sale.
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-6918893/Stagecoach-mulls-takeover-UKs-largest-bus-operator-Arriva-goes-sale.html

It's wouldn't be Stagecoach direct if done via Souter Holdings potentially acting as broker to break-up & sell some parts, whilst retaining other parts. Souter only holds 15.2% of Stagecoach Plc and doesn't have a controlling stake. There is also the possibility the Stagecoach could be interested in Arriva European Ops, as present they are now solely reliant on the UK for their business having being excluded and now refusing to bid for anymore UK franchises.

If you look at the major shareholding in Stagecoach PLC & First Group, Threadneedle Asset Management Ltd. own 18.2% & 8.83% respectively.

I think you're forgetting that NX have been buying commuter / corporate coach companies in the UK the past couple of years i.e. Kings Ferry / Clarkes of London / Stewarts & Woods Coaches. Also during the timeframe your refer to, NX owned & grew Travel London incorporating Connex London & TGM London which was sold to Abellio in 2009 under CEO Richard Bowker. Additionally, NX were involved in the early stages of bidding for First Manchester depots, but dropped out as they were seen to be too expensive, they also bid for Manchester Metrolink contract. Whilst NX have largely been expanding overseas mainly US & Spain, you need to remember that their CEO Dean Finch is ex First Group and knows the business well, opportunities to buy large profitable urban bus businesses in the UK such as Bristol, Glasgow, West Yorkshire etc don't come around very often. These share similar operating characteristics to national Express West Midlands i.e. high frequency, urban, some are former PTE areas. NX are interested in anything at the right price, I think they may show a hand and surprise. Go-Ahead Group Group would make a good merger partner for NX, as they have some good quality UK Bus ops. But as previously said, NX are in the unique position that they could buy large parts / all of First Group or Arriva UK with little or no overlap of opoco's / services.

(11/07/2019 23:00)Winston Wrote:  As far as I'm aware Rusholme is still only leased by First Manchester, I understand the Fingland's family still own the depot.

It may make perfect operational sense for First, but as I understand it, Atherton depot will be retained for the time being under Rotala and effectively mothballed whilst they wait to see when Vantage is to be re-tendered etc

(13/07/2019 21:46)gilesbus1 Wrote:  I am just puzzled though with National Express why nothing really has happened bus wise in the UK for such a long time, and indead they have actually sold operations off to Abellio in the case of London and Arriva in the case of several other operations over the years, rather than bought anything.

Coaches have always appeared to be the main focus, and indeed National Express is probably the UK's main major player in Express City to City Coach operations although Stagecoach's presence has got bigger, and they are the dominant player in Scotland as a result of the deal with Scottish City Link and Parks effectively paralleling them under agreement.

National Express do have lots of operations in Morocco and Eastern Europe and also in Malta, so maybe a better move might be Arriva's European operations as they might bolt on nicely to what they already have. I still feel a merger with Go Ahead is the best option for UK growth for National Express, First seem to want over asset price for what they are selling in order to clear debts, and maybe that will in effect place many opp's into debt. If I was a large operator looking to buy the two king operations in First and Arriva that could generate the most money are simply First Glasgow and Arriva Merseyside, these are the units that carry the biggest profits in those two companies, If I was picking a third option then First West Yorkshire would be it, outside of Merseyside Arriva probably have very little of high value operations as they are heavily based on rural operations in the South East were car use is high and in the Midlands were outside of the Fox County and Derby section the opp's are extremely rural although there are services into Birmingham.

If I thought I could turn an operation from Loss to Profit I would pick probably Arriva's Milton Keynes operations as City expansion will give more opportunity for growth in the years ahead and economies car be made with garage sites there. e.g. closing the current sites and moving to a single site depot outside the town boundary on a new development site which could be picked up cheaply, also then looking at the fleet make up there and the road layout's which have lead to minibus operation in the past and working with the Borough Council to see how that situation could be made safer, easier and more efficient, maybe looking at the use of a guided busway to link Newport Pagnell, Milton Keynes City Centre and Bletchley maybe one option, and also the use of a click type service might be another, especially for usage after dark.

(13/07/2019 23:42)Winston Wrote:  With NX UK Bus sales, the sales you're referring to Arriva were purchases made by WMT prior to flotation & eventually merger with NX in 1993, they were sold to Cowie in 1996 ish (which became Arriva), those ops sold were County Bus & Coach, Westlink & North East Bus, they were all non core / didn't match the urban high frequency characteristics of WMT etc. Westlink in particular was only acquired as a potential stepping stone to buy a former London Buses Op (but prices got stupid) and it didn't happen. WMT also bid for GM Bus North, WMT bought those ops to fatten itself up prior to flotation & not be just reliant on the West Midlands. Travel London was sold in 2009 due to needing cash when NX Group came close to collapse due to over stretching itself following Richard Bowker's £450 million acquisition of Continental Auto in Spain & unrealistic winning bid for the East Coast Main Line. During all that period NX have had a number of different CEO's, with different strategy's. At present, the focus for expansion has been US & Spain plus contracted ops, as there's been more opportunities abroad.

NX's operations in US are all school buses/transit buses & paratransit - no coaches, Morocco is all buses, as is Bahrain. There's no Eastern European operations. Only European operations are Spain via ALSA & German rail Franchises. NX UK Coach & Bus generate pretty equal profits & turnover isn't that far apart either, but UK ops are dwarfed by US & Spain. NX seem keener to grow UK Bus of late with NXWM bidding for various tenders inside/outside of the West Midlands, expanding in to Staffordshire with commercial extensions and I believe they are also interested in the former Ring & Ride Accessible Transport Group that went in to administration and are thought to have bid for that. Coincidentally, they have just re-named an existing limited company via companies house on 2nd July:

WEST MIDLANDS ACCESSIBLE TRANSPORT LIMITED
https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/02327223

Top of the shopping list for First ops will First Glasgow, First West Yorkshire, First Bristol etc, with First Leicester is a decent earner as well. South Yorkshire is also a large op which could be turnaround under different management. There's never been this much up for sale at anyone time, this is why I think NX may surprise and will be actively involved. Big urban ops like those don't come on the market very often. First may want top dollar, but there will be a limited number of buyers for their biggest ops, and the timing of Arriva sale doesn't help matters either. First are not exactly in the driving seat, major investors are tired excuses and little happening. Not sure how true, but on another forum NX management have supposedly been sighted at First Glasgow's Caledonia Depot. It will be interesting to see what Greyhound gets sold off for (most likely to Flixbus or PE), when Moir Lockhead supposedly snubbed Stagecoach's £700 million offer to buy it some years back.

Arriva Group will not be broken up & sold off by DB, it will be sold as a group or possibly split in to two i.e. UK & Europe at most. DB needs to reduce their debt pronto.

(13/07/2019 22:30)gilesbus1 Wrote:  They will struggle with vandalism then as its in a poorly lit area, so having it vacant is a recipe for vandalism. In any case would it not just by simpler at the end of the day to run Vantage for Rotala out of Bolton again were you've a bigger potential staff resource and the workshops to deal with vehicles that are specialist and complicated?

I effectively think though with Vantage the fact that FirstGroup is being sold, they will not be able to last the timetable of the contract if they cannot sell it on, as presumably First West Yorkshire were it will be managed from will be sold very quickly due to its profitably, therefore meaning it can't be managed from anywhere effectively. The tenders they have separate to Vantage at sometime will come to an end and it can't be possible to place a bid to operate them profitably when the base is so far away from Bolton, even Oldham is closer theoretically to operate them from. So those contracts will be lost by First. Suspect now Vision Bus is in an excellent position to win work around Bolton as Diamond's overheads will be much higher and Vision's a lot lower. Like First Manchester its likely Diamond now will start to lose work considering there higher overheads of wages, fuel and staff, they have no possible way of reducing them seeing it has to start lending vehicles from FirstGroup and then commence a heavy vehicle replacement plan, so they will like First mainly just end up operating commercial work within Bolton itself, the Wigan work will find its way to Stagecoach over time, seeing as its closer to Leigh and has half a garage vacant at Wigan and has workshops that are as big as Bolton's if not bigger. Also routes like the 132 were not abandonded by Stagecoach but by First so if the dead mileage from Eccles kills it, I am sure Stagecoach will be happy to take them on.

(14/07/2019 00:15)gilesbus1 Wrote:  What's likely with Arriva and indicated by the bids so far is that it will be bought out by Venture Capitalists, they buy and break up business' in order to squeeze maximum returns out of them, it can be done in all sorts of different ways, I also suspect depots might close as a return can be made on selling the depots off as they are just merely seen as another asset from which a source of revenue can come in from. I think the maximum time a venture capitalist would retain a business for would be five years and eventually then you would see the movement in subsidiaries as individual sales. I suspect a Venture Capitalist might also buy First UK Bus and do likewise, but I suspect FirstGroup want out quickly so are open to any offers for subsidiaries so long as they meet there valuations they have in there head.

Operators will come in one the Venture Capitalists are out of the way, but be warned break ups by Venture Capitalists can sometimes be quite strange by structure, e.g. all the Scottish operations of FirstGroup as one separate sale for example, or you could have Glasgow Caladonia depot goes to one buyer, Dumbarton to another and everything else to somebody else as its all open to negotiation, sometimes done with other venture capitalists, e.g. sometimes one business lot passes on to another business lot owned by the same venture capitalist.

Quite often the first infrastructure to go on take over by a venture capitalist is the head office. Any property left close to a City Centre or a housing site might go quickly as well, as the values of them are potentially high.

If Hyde Road Depot in Manchester for example was owned by a Venture Capitalist the likelihood would be that it would be sold to a Construction Company for a retail park given the size of it and its location at the side of a main road on a major corridor into Manchester and the vastness of the site there, much of which is mothballed and out of use, and somehow its surprising Stagecoach haven't done that over time.

Having said that though mileage costs are kept low by having Hyde Road as are wage costs.

Venture Capitalists though may appear or have short periods of time when they expand the business, probably in order to up the price of a particular unit so it sells better later on. This is were Arriva appears to be going as a list was given by Coach & Bus Week which shows three of the four bidders so far to be Venture Capitalists, including one who own Canary Wharf in London's docklands and no it doesn't been Canary Wharf might get demolished it merely means its an asset in a portfolio.

Keolis who is the only Transport Group to place a bid so far is potentially an outsider, although its recent winning of the Metrolink contract in Manchester might show that the UK is somewhere they want to grow, but outbidding Venture Capitalists and Banks with vast capital resources will be very difficult. This I think is a new phase in the bus and train market and one which given the difficulties and uncertainties that currently exist in the market is probably the most likely outcome.

(14/07/2019 00:25)Winston Wrote:  I never suggested Rotala would run Vantage out of Atherton should they bid successfully, I simply said that Atherton may be initially retained in the event that additional depot capacity is required. As Bolton depot is superior to any other NW depots, that's why it's becoming Rotala NW headquarters.

TfGM want Vantage re-tendered. That's why it wasn't included in the sale to Rotala.

Yes overheads will be higher, but so will the number of buses generating income, it's all proportional. The Atherton routes being shipped in to Bolton are replacing spare capacity from the loss making Vantage contract & TfGM school buses. Once the Bolton purchase goes through, Diamond NW will go from mainly low margin tendered work to majority of it's revenue/profit being generated from commercial work which *should* eventually be far more profitable once the business is sorted out. That can then be used to subsidise and maintain competitive tender bids if desired, Diamond WM is still heavily involved in tendered work, I don't see the NW being any different. If Quality Contracts come in, bidders may be tendering for complete packages of routes rather than just individual route tenders, which may work in the favour of bigger operators like Diamond & Go North West that have plenty of finance to draw upon over your Vision Bus etc. I don't see where fuel comes in either, for the reasons mentioned above. Even more so with the heavy vehicle replacement plan which will result in lower engineering costs, lower fuel costs due to being micro hybrids/Euro 6, these buses will also come with the Low Emission Bus Certificates which will make them eligible for low emission grants.

I'm sure Rotala will have looked at all the potential scenario's and run the numbers before making the decision to buy First Bolton, close Atherton, plus the knock on effect of moving that work to Bolton & Eccles, with potential dead mileage involved etc. I doubt they're not going to suddenly give up all the original Diamond NW tendered work, just because they will soon have First Bolton's commercial routes, they want to expand/not contract. I think you need to let the takeover happen and bed in first, before trying to predict the future.

(14/07/2019 20:30)gilesbus1 Wrote:  I aren't overly convinced by it, the tenders and the low return commercial work based at Leigh and Wigan will simply be lost or given up, that has been what has happened in the past hence why Diamond North West exists at all, its just simply not profitable operated from Bolton, like the Shakerley wasn't before. Cross subsidy of routes isn't allowed under the Transport Act 1985.

Large super depots generally don't work unless you are where the super depot is, e.g. Bolton, they also effect staffing in that clinks form, engineering in that it becomes poor and unable to deal with oddities in the fleet, and expensive to operate and sometimes under utilised, they are a complete utter useless failure. Also they affect people's health, with high levels of pollution from operating buses, buses that are damaged being towed in from miles away. I've no intention of ever using the 132 again as its not reliable when operated by Atherton so it certainly won't be operated by Eccles, which is 25 miles away from Wigan. New buses fixes nothing.