First Group Speculation

[First Class]

RE: First Group Speculation

(02/10/2012 22:11)wirralbus Wrote:  So First group could be in serious doubt if the First West Coast does not meet targets .

The general attitude was that if they don't get Intercity West Coast AND fail to retain the Great Western franchise, then they will be pretty much wiped out.

Bus division - heavy losses in areas, £100m disposals project. Little investment available, may lose market share to other operators.

Greyhound - heavy losses, likely to be axed.

Rail - TPE due up in 2015, Scotrail due up in 2014, Great Western 2013, Capital Connect also 2013. Hull Trains growth rate reported to be poor, but steady.

There is a real possibility of their rail division taking a good battering. There could be pressure on the DfT internally to prevent or restrict First from winning future franchises, owing to the perceived financial risk of their WestCoast bid. Come 2015, they may only have one franchise, (WCML). With Arriva/DB getting stronger from the merger, Abellio, SNCF, RENFE and MTR Japan starting to become more active in the bidding world, First would have to tender a very competitive bid, which could impact them financially.

I can see someone buying First Group out and restructuring, probably Keolis.