GHA Group (Bryn Melyn, Vale Travel + Others)

[djb]

RE: GHA Group (Bryn Melyn, Vale Travel + Others)

(27/09/2016 15:07)knutstransport Wrote:  I was under the impression (from what my local paper reported) that Cheshire East asked operators to look at whether it would be viable to continue running routes when the contracts ended. I did say "when the High Peak contract came to an end" so did not in any way imply it the contract was cancelled. Of course, High Peak didn't have to register a commercial 27 service (as you implied) as they already had an active 27 registration so they just had to submit a request to update the registration for a reduced service.

You seem to know a lot about what conversations took place between TSS/Cheshire East and multiple operators. So either you must have worked for TSS/Cheshire East or you changed employer every few months. If not surely what you've heard is just as much hearsay as what myself or other posters hear?

And yet again you make an argument about something that isn't exactly the most relevant part of the post - it was the attempt to run a 90 minute commercial service that caused the drop in usage, whose ever idea that was.

I think the issue here is that there are probably only enough passengers to cover a one bus operation on the 27 commercially (and clearly it's very very marginal).

The fact that gha managed to run a commercial hourly service should not be construed as evidence that the 27 is commercially viable at that frequency. If it was high peak wouldn't have dropped it to 90 minutes, and gha aren't exactly the best example of financial success.

Arriva are retrenching commercially continually. Howard's I think are a good bet for organic growth where potential exists - a smaller company that can keep its eye on the ball.

It will be interesting what happens to the 200 if the plan to move the viewing park goes ahead.

[knutstransport]

RE: GHA Group (Bryn Melyn, Vale Travel + Others)

(27/09/2016 16:11)djb Wrote:  I think the issue here is that there are probably only enough passengers to cover a one bus operation on the 27 commercially (and clearly it's very very marginal).

The fact that gha managed to run a commercial hourly service should not be construed as evidence that the 27 is commercially viable at that frequency. If it was high peak wouldn't have dropped it to 90 minutes, and gha aren't exactly the best example of financial success.

Arriva are retrenching commercially continually. Howard's I think are a good bet for organic growth where potential exists - a smaller company that can keep its eye on the ball.

It will be interesting what happens to the 200 if the plan to move the viewing park goes ahead.

The question isn't whether an hourly 27 is viable commercially, it's whether the operator of the new subsided contract will be able to enhance the frequency to back where it was.

One problem Howards face is the 27 is much less frequent than the 130 so they pick up very few paying passengers between Macclesfield and the hospital or AstraZeneca. If both routes were the same frequency, the same operator or if multi operator tickets were available it would be a different story

[djb]

RE: GHA Group (Bryn Melyn, Vale Travel + Others)

(27/09/2016 17:29)knutstransport Wrote:  The question isn't whether an hourly 27 is viable commercially, it's whether the operator of the new subsided contract will be able to enhance the frequency to back where it was.

One problem Howards face is the 27 is much less frequent than the 130 so they pick up very few paying passengers between Macclesfield and the hospital or AstraZeneca. If both routes were the same frequency, the same operator or if multi operator tickets were available it would be a different story

Id have thought the 2 go hand in hand. To be able to enhance the service to hourly, the revenues on the current service will have to merit it. If the current service is only borderline commercial, it's hard to see anyone offering anything better than ghas hourly (outisde school peak) operation.

The service needs a period of stability in terms of timetable, and operator. People between Macc and monks Heath will use a lower frequency service if it's reliable. The 130 currently is not reliable towards Macc due to its length, although the short journeys short help this.

Out of interest, when was the last time the 27 had an all day hourly commercial offering?

[djb]

RE: GHA Group (Bryn Melyn, Vale Travel + Others)

(27/09/2016 19:47)Dentonian Wrote:  Not heard about this - when and where to?

As part of the airport expansion, to move the viewing park to the opposite side of the runways (near the fire station Iirc, presumably accessed past the tunnels) to create extra aircraft capacity. No confirmed timescale mind so could be a few years off. I'll see if I can find a link to post here.

[33109]

RE: GHA Group (Bryn Melyn, Vale Travel + Others)
Been told by an arriva driver this morning who's heard off his boss that stagecoach are apparently keeping the sunday 130.

[knutstransport]

RE: GHA Group (Bryn Melyn, Vale Travel + Others)

(27/09/2016 17:49)djb Wrote:  Id have thought the 2 go hand in hand. To be able to enhance the service to hourly, the revenues on the current service will have to merit it. If the current service is only borderline commercial, it's hard to see anyone offering anything better than ghas hourly (outisde school peak) operation.

What I was getting at is you said "The fact that gha managed to run a commercial hourly service should not be construed as evidence that the 27 is commercially viable at that frequency"

Saying whether a service is viable to run commercially to an hourly frequency or whether it would be viable for the operator of a contracted 2 hourly service could justify enhancing the service to hourly isn't the same thing as for the latter there's the revenue from the subsidy as well as the fares.

Quote:People between Macc and monks Heath will use a lower frequency service if it's reliable. The 130 currently is not reliable towards Macc due to its length, although the short journeys short help this.

That depends whether the lower priority service meets your needs or not. If you start work in Macclesfield town centre at 8am or finish at 6pm, you can't use the 27 as it doesn't start early enough and finishes too early. On the other hand the 130 does have a pre-8am arrival and a post-6pm departure. However, with different people having different starting and finishing times it's impossible to meet the needs of all potential passengers using 1 vehicle.

When Bakers operated the 27 they used to run a Congleton-Macclesfield-Astra Zeneca- Knutsford service in the morning and one from Knutsford-Astra Zeneca-Macclesfield-Congleton in the evening. If anyone from Congleton used the bus to get to Astra Zeneca I imagine they would have chosen the Bakers service over using Arriva and changing even if the Arriva services were more frequent.

Quote:Out of interest, when was the last time the 27 had an all day hourly commercial offering?

Apart from the GHA Saturday 27 service I'm not sure it's ever happened. Macclesfield to Knutsford was served by two routes under North Western/Stevensons with a 26 service being Macclesfield to Northwich via Knutsford, which I think later got cut back to Knutsford meaning 26 finished up as the direct route and 27 as via Over Peover. The contract awarded to Bakers was a major revision where the 26 disappeared and an hourly 27 started (with 27A and 27B route variations) and it started serving Zeneca for the first time (they weren't Astra Zeneca yet) and some peak time services continued to Congleton as I mentioned.

[djb]

RE: GHA Group (Bryn Melyn, Vale Travel + Others)

(27/09/2016 20:51)Dentonian Wrote:  I wondered if it might be linked to the Expansion/Terminal One redevelopment. Probably, 2022/23 ish.

(Drifting off topic.....) I imagine so, or sooner. Planning permission already exists, and it's early on the timescales because it's a standalone feature. The main sticking point originally was that the new site was smaller so a transport plan has to be agreed with c.e.c.

[knutstransport]

RE: GHA Group (Bryn Melyn, Vale Travel + Others)

(26/09/2016 13:48)33109 Wrote:  stagecoach are doing brilliant with the 130 & received very high praise from passengers. 1 of their drivers mentioned he'd heard off his boss that arriva might take over the sun 130s again.

(28/09/2016 08:10)33109 Wrote:  Been told by an arriva driver this morning who's heard off his boss that stagecoach are apparently keeping the sunday 130.

So some at Stagecoach have heard Arriva have won the contract, while some at Arriva have heard that Stagecoach have retained the contract. Could it be that neither have been awarded the contract?

Does anyone know how where there were roughly the normal number of bids for the new contracts? I'm guessing if an operator like D&G had placed a bid for all the contracts and then won them all then it would be a difficult job to get sufficient resources in place in time.

Also does anyone know if D&G and High Peak ever bid for the same contracts with Julian Peddle being a director of both D&G and Centrebus?

(27/09/2016 13:32)quahogbuscompany Wrote:  but I'm led to believe the 200 and 27 contracts have been won at a minimum cost tender with a vehicle age restriction of 15 years, so I'm sure there will be no new buses forthcoming for those services.

Just looking at the Howard's fleet list the two leased Enviro 200s obviously meet that requirement. V23 HOW was originally YN51 MKZ so it might currently meet that requirement but won't in a few months time. V24 HOW was YK53 GXL so that meets the requirement for a couple of years yet. F15 HOW was BX05 FPV so that'll meet the requirement until the early part of 2020. The two Volvo B10BLEs and the Dart are well over 15 years old and I imagine any deckers or coaches wouldn't be used except in an emergency.

Obviously as mentioned the 289 is getting a new vehicle and possibly V23 HOW can continue to be used on the Cheshire West 48 route. However, unless the lease vehicles are retained or replaced that would only leave 2 vehicles suitable for the 27 and 200 routes if what you say about the 15 year restriction is true. The lease vehicles hadn't been given any branding apart from a window sticker the last time I saw them so I'm not sure if they are being retained.

[mikestone]

RE: GHA Group (Bryn Melyn, Vale Travel + Others)
Since running more than the tenders called for seems to have been at least in part responsible for GHA running out of cash I can't see anyone else trying it.

[Mayneway]

RE: GHA Group (Bryn Melyn, Vale Travel + Others)

(28/09/2016 13:14)mikestone Wrote:  Since running more than the tenders called for seems to have been at least in part responsible for GHA running out of cash I can't see anyone else trying it.

This was inevitably GHA's downfall. They seemed to believe it was better to look like they were doing well rather than actually doing well in the sense that they were running a successful business.
Clearly they ran tenders at a loss to keep hold of them and again the fear of loosing contracts to the compititon lead them to register contracts commercially that in theory wernt commercially viable - suicidal.